With digital media becoming more prominent, with respects to music, movies, and other media, how long do you think it will be before disc technology (CDs, DVDs, and Blu-Ray) becomes outright obsolete?

I look at my shelf of albums and movies, and I think, "Man, I'm going to have to cart all this stuff around the next time I move..." Before, I was a champion of the hard copy, but now, I rather view STUFF in general as a burden. And further, I think how expensive the STUFF is, and mainly, it's because of the cost of producing and distributing a hard copy.

Then I look at digitally distributed games, movies, and music, and I revel in how inexpensive it is!

And then I look at my DVDs, and how they're all copy-protected. Who the hell would bother buying DVDs in this day and age, when I can get movies for free, and in some cases, movies as recent as within the past six months, by using On-Demand services offered through my cable service? For you to still want to buy DVDs, you'd have to be completely ignorant of the digital distribution services that already exist!

What do you think? How much longer do you think it will be before hard copying media becomes obsolete?

Because, if you ask me, I think it's inevitable.

I think the smaller stuff will easily become download only, but as long as bandwith and downloading limits remain low (in this country anyways) and cheap massively huge storage becomes readily available things like Blu-ray movies and big games will remain on disc media.  You need a pretty good computer to be even able to play a 1080p movie file without massive lagging problems, plus they're huge!  (8 to 10 gigs per movie!)  We complain about long install times for games, think about long download times for games and movies.

Eventually yes, I believe physical media will become extinct, but not for some time.

You know, I never thought it happen - and I've been a rather steadfast opponent against it - but I'm finding myself drawn to music downloads. I'm just sick of buying CDs, ripping them, and having them sitting in a box in the rare occasion I need the original. I'm not overly concerned with the bit rate anyways (128 is fine to me) and I'd honestly rather have the space and not waste the time reselling the hard copy when it's run it's course.

Plus, anything that hurts gluttonous corporations like F.Y.E. is awesome (and yes, I understand the irony in using the word “gluttonous” and not using to describe the music industry as a whole.)

As for DVDs/movies, when I look at the movies I have on shelf I don't feel the same way as I do with music CDs.

i can see collecting cds because you can easily listen to a cd you like 100+ times, and you can do other things while youre listening to them. But as for purchasing dvds,, you have to plop yourself down in front of your tv for 2 hours to watch one.

It's still going to be another 30 years (or longer) before you should start panicking about this becoming a real possibility.

Even though VHS is a dead format, there's still 6-packs of blank VHS tapes sold at Walmart, and yes people are still buying them.  New VHS+DVD combo players are still being manufactured.

It takes a long time before dead formats really disappear completely, even due to the age of the consumers, as 60 year olds are still making use of VHS tapes.

Physical formats have been changing at a very rapid pace, every 5~10 years, and digital formats are changing even faster (literally every year), and those factors actually HINDER any sudden disappearance of physical mediums, or a sudden shift to an all digital life.

While 15 year olds have a more digital life than 50 year olds do, those 15 year olds will eventually still be hanging on to the dead-formats of today's era when they turn 50 as well.

Tech can only change as fast as PEOPLE (who are physical) can change.
And people certainly choose not to change when they don't want to.

I echo this sentiment exactly.  2 hours is a long time.  Maybe it's my (supposed) ADD coming into play, but if I'm going to watch a movie, you'd better believe I'm going to have my DS or psp there with me.

Also, $24 for two movie tickets?  Screw that.  I'll buy the blu-ray.

Two hours is a long time, but what's weird is I will be able to read a book without any distractions for hours (well, maybe a bathroom break or two), but it takes a lot for me to sit and watch a movie the whole way through. Unless the movie is ridiculous. Or unless it's "He's Just Not That Into You", which I watched in its entirety on Saturday without any distractions or bathroom breaks.

... what?

Man, I got ADHD something fierce (not just supposedly) so playing games, I even need another game by me to keep me occupied while the first one is loading, or when a cutscene is playing (assuming I've seen the scene before). It's weird and a little sad.

Movies are another beast entirely For the most part, I cannot sit down and watch a movie with my full attention unless it is animated in some form. I have a decent collection of movies I've picked up, but 90% of them are animated films (with The Big Lebowski being one of the few off the top of my head that isn't).

Which reminds me, I need to buy Speed Racer, since Angie was less than impressed when she found out I'd downloaded it.

  My wife pay-per-viewed that one last night, said it was pretty good!  ... also got her thinking that I might be cheating on her. (??!?)  Damn chick flicks!

if you're sitting thru chick flicks like that,, she's probably more worried that youre cheating on her with another dude...

He's not, his wife is.

Yeah, get it right.  Zane's the male who watches chick flicks and carries around a pink iPod shuffle.  Duh.

When it comes to chick flicks, it's important to see what rubbish that Hollywood is filling your wife's/girlfriend's head with.

I'm actually the other way around. I like to watch (a) movie(s) when I'm level-grinding in whatever God-forsaken tedious PS2 RPG I've been playing lately. Especially when it's dungeon music, battle music, dungeon music, battle music, between the same two damn themes, if I listen to them enough in a day, even after I turn the game off, the themes still keep replaying in my head. And that's more annoying than mosquitoes buzzing in your ears...

I consider myself to be a semi film buff, so for good or for bad, I always give every movie I see my undivided attention.  And I relish the longer running ones, but then my endurance was strengthened throughout the years from the likes of Gone With The Wind, Once Upon A Time In America, Schindler's List, Titanic, and the LOTR trilogy.  It shouldn't come as no surprise, then, that I'm the one who'll always be first in line for the Director's Extended Cut Editions. ;)

As for the original topic, I believe James and Carl's estimations are largely correct.  Physical media should continue to be around for a while yet.  The CD market may be on a general decline, but DVD sales, especially for popular new releases, is still brisk.  And when it comes to the distribution of massive GB-sized quantities of data, Blu-ray continues to be the most viable method for distribution.

I think it's inevitable that digital distribution will become the primary means of distribution for all music, movies, and games at some point in the not too distant future, but physical media will never go away entirely.  It'll just become reserved for special collector's editions, giant box sets, etc.  To some extent, this is already happening with game music.

On the gaming side, check out this rumor: http://www.joystiq.com/2009/06/24/games … -capcom-2/

It's a limited edition box without the actual game!

August 14th? Isn't that six weeks after it releases, or have dates changed? Wrong side of crazy, in any case.

I personally prefer to have whatever I can in physical form first and foremost - holding up an SD card with a bevy of games and music feels like that Jetsons joke with the four-course tablet meal. And if there's still a market for vinyl, I'll keep the faith on physical media's odds of survival.

I don't think the game has ever had an officially announced release date other than "summer 2009."