http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/20/world/eur … ?hpt=hp_c1

Are scientists now supposed to see into the future like some sort of prophet? If I predict an earthquake, and then it does not happen, can I take credit for stopping it too?

Not sure where I stand on the lawsuit yet, but the lawsuit isn't about failing to predict the earthquake like the CNN article claims. My understanding was that the scientists had evidence that suggested there might be danger and they instead downplayed it and officially told the town they were safe and there was no chance of an earthquake. Lives could have been saved if they had simply told the truth and took preventative measures.

Not sure if that's really the lowdown on what happened or if I buy it, but that's what NPR was reporting.

That certainly is different than what I read in the article. However, I would need to know more in order to make a judgement. Earthquakes are hard to predict, and it's possible (I would say even probable) that the scientists did not want to scare people if they thought the chances of an earthquake were slim. Let me know if you hear any more.

Yeah, I'm pretty curious about this myself. I couldn't find the report that I heard on the air, but here's a similar one from NPR:

http://www.npr.org/2011/09/20/140650913 … taly-quake

It's not as contradictory as I made it sound I suppose. Based on what I currently know, a lawsuit does seem rather misplaced. On the other hand, if scientists are going to be so quick to point out that they can't accurately predict earthquakes and shouldn't be held responsible, then maybe they should be a little bit slower to reassure people by predicting safety. They are coming off as rather hypocritical and irresponsible.

Regardless, maybe a better course of action would be to take the issue to the government and put together a better warning / preparedness system to avoid issues like this in the future. I don't think the lawsuit it going to accomplish much apart from further alienating seismologists and the people they're supposed to be helping.

I think it's one of those situations where you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't. As far as I know, and so far all scientific articles I've read agree with this: it's currently impossible to predict earthquakes (both when and where). You can predict a volcano eruption, or a tsuanmi, since those have clear predictors, but not so for a large earthquake. The most I know, is that if you're near a fault, you're more likely to be hit by one. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. So far, all indications are that this is almost like a witch-hunt, and is completely backwards! I wonder if astronomers are going to get sued next time a relatively large meteorite hits...

http://earthsky.org/earth/is-it-possibl … arthquakes